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Dzulkefly: Be truthful about state of the economy. Obession with growth numbers not very helpful…

September 15, 2016

Dzulkefly: Be truthful about state of the economy

(This comment was offered in response to the spate of heated exchange between Second Finance Minster and the veteran journalist Dato Kadir Jasin on growth numbers,  the more controversial 3.1% fiscal deficit target for 2016, which is most unlikely to be achieved and the upcoming budget 2017).

Calling on the Government to address structural reforms in Budget 2017, Amanah’s Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad says it should not merely trot out show-case numbers to show all is well.

Dzulkefly Ahmad

PETALING JAYA: The Federal Government should stop its obsession with macroeconomic numbers and focus instead on implementing structural economic reforms in preparing Budget 2017, says Amanah’s Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad.

Speaking to FMT, Dzulkefly, who is Amanah’s strategy director, said when Budget 2016 was recalibrated in January this year, one of the important targets was to maintain a budget deficit of 3.1 per cent, rather than a worrying 4.0 per cent deficit.

“It was also to avoid a sharp worsening of business and consumer sentiment. Not the least of which was to avoid a sovereign rating downgrading.”

Dzulkefly said while the government then slashed its expenditure budget by RM9 billion to meet the deficit target, in the first half of 2016 its operating expenditure had expanded by 2.1 per cent, while development expenditure increased by 30 per cent.

“As reported, total revenue that was projected to drop by approximately 1 per cent for the whole of 2016, actually fell by almost 10 per cent in the first half of 2016,” he said, adding this meant for the first half of the year, there was an estimated RM17 billion shortfall in revenue.

Hence, Dzulkefly said, the million dollar question now was whether Putrajaya was still capable of meeting the targeted 3.1 per cent budget deficit.

He, however, said it was more important for Putrajaya not to repeat the mistakes made regarding the economy, and not to be overly obsessed with macroeconomic numbers.

“Doing more of the same while simply paying lip-service to the need for a higher performing economy, without structural reforms does not help the anaemic economy and its productivity,” he said, adding this only served the rentier-class and the privileged few.

He said more concrete measures, other than cash-handouts, must be put in place to get a higher income for the Bottom-40 (B-40).

According to him, the solution to the problems faced by the Middle-40 (M-40) does not lie in BRIM cash-handouts as this will only doom the M-40 to remain in the middle-income trap. Debt-based consumption is similarly ‘unsustainable’ as the household debt is currently reaching 89.1% of GDP.

“Misallocation of resources must also stop and the importance of education and upgrading of skill-sets in capacity building of the human capital must not be compromised”.

Dzulkefly said it was high time to dismantle monopolies which were distorting the market and disallowing for better competition among genuine business enterprises, as this would help keep prices down.

“Finally, our obsession and penchant for show-casing ‘numbers’ have actually deluded the people into believing that all is well with our economy.

“Regrettably too, it doesn’t at all represent the real matrix of happiness and prosperity for the citizenry.”

 

Obsession with macroeconomics numbers

 

COMMENT: The last time the Budget 2016 was recalibrated in January this year, amongst the important targets was to ensure that the the budget deficit at 3.1 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would be maintained as set in Budget 2015.

With the global crude oil experiencing a precipitous fall then, the recalibration was aimed at averting a budget deficit to GDP of 4.0 percent. It was also to avoid a sharp worsening of business and consumer sentiment. Not the least was to avoid a sovereign rating downgrading.

For the record, RM9 billion expenditure cut were put in place as to keep budget deficit at 3.1 percent of GDP (at RM39 billion). Total revenue that was projected to drop by approximately 1 percent for the whole of 2016, actually fell by almost 10 percent in the first half of 2016.

Revenue collected in the first six months of RM96 billion is actually about 44 percent of total revenue projected for the whole year of 2016. Hence there is about RM17 billion shortfall, in terms of revenue for the entire year. Not too bad but still worrying to say of the least.

But more disturbing is on the expenditure-side. Operating expenditure has expanded by 2.1 percent and 30 percent in terms of net development expenditure in the first six months. While arguably needed in term of supporting a slowing economy and maintaining growth, this has surely caused concern. Total net expenditure has actually climbed by 5.4 percent in the first half of 2016.

Will the federal government now capable of achieving its targetted fiscal deficit of 3.1 percent of GDP? The twin tasks of raising revenues while managing expenditures would be onerous much as it seems less of an urgency given a slowing global economy and persistent headwinds moving forward in the second half of 2016.

It is perhaps more pertinent to address the upcoming budget so as not to repeat perennial problems of the economy. Obsession with macroeconomic numbers including but not limited to growth and budget deficit, has time and again deluded us to believe that we are doing well.

Doing ‘more of the same’ while simply paying lip-service to the need for a ‘higher performing economy’, yet not committed to real structural reforms of the economy, will neither do any good nor appease any sections of the Bottom-40 (B-40) and the Middle-40 (M-40) nor the genuine business community.

Yawning divides both in income and wealth remain unattended, save through ‘cash-handouts’ of Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BRIM), which is obviously unsustainable in the longer run. Debt-based consumption is similarly ‘deceptive’ as household debt reaches 89.1% of GDP.

Finally, while we are very hopeful of escaping the ‘Middle-Income Trap’ soon, we are nonetheless still stuck in our obsession with numbers, which regrettably do not truly represent the real matrix of happiness and prosperity for the citizenry.

DR DZULKEFLY AHMAD is strategy director, Parti Amanah Negara.

Dzul: Mahathir-Anwar pact may unleash Malaysian Tsunami

September 8, 2016

Amanah’s Dzulkefly Ahmad says many Malaysians want to see them put the past behind and move forward together to save the country from the present administration.

dzul-anwar-mahthirPETALING JAYA: Former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his former protege Anwar Ibrahim could unleash a ‘Malaysian Tsunami’, bringing much needed change to Malaysia, Amanah Strategy Director Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad said.

Speaking to FMT on the meeting between the two former Umno stalwarts earlier this week, Dzulkefly said the meeting could be a catalyst for change which many Malaysians, especially the pro-change Malay voters, longed for.

“The last time this country saw a Malay Tsunami was when Mahathir, as prime minister sacked his deputy, Anwar, and the rest is history,

“It is not impossible that this time, the two could join forces to save Malaysia and the people through a Malaysian Tsunami cutting across race, religion and political affiliation.”

He said people wanted change as the executive branch of the government had reached the height of arrogance.
He said change was not impossible in the next general election.

Dzulkefly said he was confident that many Malaysians wanted to see the two statesmen put the past behind them and move forward together to save the country from the current leadership which had caused much hardship to the people.

On Monday, Mahathir made an unscheduled visit to a High Court hearing in Kuala Lumpur on the urgent application by his former nemesis Anwar, to suspend the coming into force of the controversial National Security Council Act.

Mahathir, who left Umno earlier this year, shook hands and briefly exchanged pleasantries with Anwar in the witness room.
It is believed that it was the first time both Mahathir and Anwar had met after a lapse of 18 years.

 

Tired of the unending fiasco but….Now that MO1 is PM Najib, will we see an end to this orgy?

September 4, 2016

Dzulkefly Ahmad
3 Sep 2016, AM 10:53 (Updated 3 Sep 2016, PM 12:51) MKINI

COMMENT It took six weeks for Putrajaya to finally admit that Malaysian Official 1 (MO1), mentioned 36 times in the US Department of Justice (DOJ) civil suit, is the Prime Minister of Malaysia, Najib Abdul Razak.

To be fair, BN strategic communications director Abdul Rahman Dahlan has said, on record on Aug 7, that “there is no mystery about Malaysia Official 1, only an idiot doesn’t know who that person is”.

However, Rahman has, to date, insisted that the reason DOJ didn’t name PM Najib is because he is not involved in, nor part of the investigation and is not subject to any investigation.

Rahman’s assertion that the prime minister should not take responsibility for the state investment fund’s problems is absolutely mind-boggling and extremely atrocious.

Who is Rahman trying to fool, and for how much longer is he frantically defending the indefensible?

Yes, Najib is not named as a defendant in this lawsuit as it is about ‘Verified Complaint For Forfeiture In Rem’.

Anybody who understands the US jurisdiction would testify that ‘In Rem’ is about ‘a proceeding that takes no notice of the owner of the property (here meaning 1MDB) but determines rights in the property that are conclusive against all the world’.

‘In rem’ only notifies those parties that have an interest in the property or assets forfeited, as to present their claims to the court, therefore, the named Red Granite Pictures, Inc and the other defendants.

Najib is not named because he is ostensibly not the owner of any of the assets to be forfeited. Surely Rahman is not intending to suggest otherwise.

Similarly, after the term ‘Verified Complaint For Forfeiture In Rem’, the complaint spelt out the ‘18 USC’.

And what is 18 USC? Title 18 of the USC, or United States Code, relates to the criminal and penal case of the federal government of the United States. It deals with federal crimes and criminal procedure. Rahman doesn’t need a reminder that if there is no wrongdoing, there would be no grounds to seize assets in the first place.

The only issue left for Rahman to intelligently reconsider is whether he should make a correction to his earlier statement that “the PM should not take responsibility for the state investment fund’s problems”.

Rahman should know that after the Patriot Act and further revision of the Frank-Dodd Act in the US, no US dollar transaction above US$50,000 (except through money-changers) can escape the US government and by presumption, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

Clearing banks, eg Mellon Banks, Standard Chartered, etc, are obliged to keep records of any correspondences (email and fax included). With a disclosure regime, dealing with dollar transactions doesn’t help. The international conspirators are checkmated.

The greatest folly of an Umno minister

Rahman’s desperate attempt at exonerating Najib is the greatest folly of an Umno minister.

Read again the various paragraphs. The DOJ depicted clearly when, where from and how much funds were wired into the personal bank accounts of the Prime Minister aka MO1 from the three Phases of 1. Good Star, 2. Aabar-BVl and 3. Tanore Finance Corporation, (totalling US$731million or RM2.9b), not including money transferred through SRC lnternational or money returned. In 1MDB, the buck stops at MO1. The time for reckoning has perhaps finally arrived.

Forget about the grandmother story of the Saudi donor of the RM2.6b. It is an illusion. By subjecting 1MDB to these orgy of horrific plundering and global laundering for the last five years (2009-2014), while Najib was helming it, has indeed plunged the nation into great disrepute.

It has not only annihilated the remnants of our integrity and goodwill with friendly Arab Gulf states, much as we also subverted the global financial system spanning across many regions. Never has the world witnessed such a disgraceful act of kleptocracy in the current world history. Undoubtedly, it is the greatest tragedy of this ailing nation, a hallmark of legacy of lost opportunity.

The Hollywood actor, Leonardo DiCaprio, like MO1, who has also not been mentioned the DOJ civil suit by name, has not only been urged to apologise but also asked to return all funds from the ill-gotten source, by the International NGO Bruno Manser Fund (BMF).

In the same vein, the entire nation, nay each and every citizen, urges that all money illegally obtained from the plundered 1MDB be immediately returned. They must not be given an option, except to return it first.

The rakyat insist that the attorney-general and all relevant enforcement agencies act promptly, once and for all, to safeguard the interest of the nation and its citizenry.

You delay it at our expense and peril, Sir. You will certainly live to regret for your inaction. God forbid.


DR DZULKEFLY AHMAD is strategy director, Parti Amanah Negara.

 

 

Dr Dzul: Who is Rahman trying to fool?

 

PETALING JAYA: Parti Amanah Negara has denounced Barisan Nasional strategist Abdul Rahman Dahlan for trying to absolve Prime Minister Najib Razak of blame for 1MDB’s problems.

Amanah Strategy Director Dzulkefly Ahmad said Abdul Rahman made a “mind boggling” and “atrocious” statement when he implied, in an interview with the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), that Najib should not be held responsible for the 1MDB scandal.

During the BBC interview, Abdul Rahman confirmed media reports that Najib is the Malaysian Official 1 (MO1) mentioned in a civil action by the US Department of Justice (DOJ). However, he said Najib was not one of the persons under investigation.

Dzulkefly explained that Najib was not named as a defendant because “the suit only notifies those parties who have an interest in the properties or assets forfeited to present their claims to the court, hence the naming of Red Granite Pictures and other defendants.

“Najib is not named because he is ostensibly not the owner of any of the assets to be forfeited. Surely Rahman is not intending to suggest otherwise.”

Dzulkefly noted that the complaint also mentioned Title 18 of the United States Code, which deals with US federal crimes and criminal procedure.

He pointed out that if there was indeed no wrongdoing, there would be no grounds to seize assets in the first place.

He added: “In the 1MDB scandal, the buck stops at Malaysian Official 1 and perhaps the time for reckoning has finally arrived.
“The only issue left for Rahman to intelligently reconsider is whether he should make a correction to his earlier statement that the PM should not take responsibility for the state investment fund’s problems.”

Dzulkefly urged the Attorney- General and enforcement agencies to act promptly in the name of national interest.

He noted that the Bruno Manser Fund had asked Hollywood actor Leonardo DiCaprio, “who, like Malaysian Offiicial 1, has not been mentioned by name in the DOJ suit,” to apologise and to return “all ill-gotten funds”.

“In the same vein, the entire nation calls for all money illegally gotten from the plundered 1MDB to be immediately returned,” he added.

Former PAS veep Husam joins Amanah..Tonight, I dedicate myself to the cause of Amanah.

August 31, 2016

Former PAS veep Husam joins Amanah

| August 30, 2016

He announces long-awaited decision during Amanah function in Putrajaya.

PETALING JAYA: Former PAS Vice-President Husam Musa today officially announced that he was joining PAS splinter party Amanah.“Tonight, I dedicate myself to the cause of Amanah,” said the long-term Salor assemblyman, reported Star Online.

He chose to make the long-awaited announcement during an Amanah Merdeka eve dinner hosted by Putrajaya Amanah.

“Hopefully, the leadership will approve my application.”

Husam was a special guest at the event.

Others who attended were Amanah President Mohamad Sabu, Deputy President Salahuddin Ayub, Secretary-General Mohd Anuar Tahir, Organising Secretary Suhaizan Kayat, Information Chief Khalid Samad, Federal Territories Amanah Chairman Mohd Hatta Ramli, Sepang MP Dr Hanipa Maidin, Strategic Director Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad and DAP Vice-Chairman Teresa Kok.

Star Online said Husam had previously publicly campaigned for the party during the Sungai Besar by-election in June.

Husam was sacked from PAS in May, following complaints of misconduct, the report added.

He had been vocal in criticising PAS President Abdul Hadi Awang.

Yesterday, he had announced he would join a new party and said his decision was made after meeting members of the public to get their views.

Husam joins Amanah, says PAS is sailing to nowhere…

24 comments     Published 30 Aug 2016, 10:58 pm     Updated Today 8:32 am

Axed PAS vice-president Husam Musa has officially submitted his membership form to the Amanah leadership during an Amanah pre-Merdeka dinner in Cyberjaya tonight.

“I deliver myself into Amanah’s struggle. I hope that the Amanah leadership will approve my application.

“Just now I have signed the application form; the membership fee was sponsored by the secretary-general,” said Husam who was the guest of honour.

The Salor assemblyperson vowed to bring himself, his family and supporters into the fight with him, to shore up Amanah.

He reminded all that when something which is old has become stale, it is time for something new and fresh.

He pointed out that even in the Quran, there are new verses which were sent to invalidate old and outdated verses.

In what can be seen as a swipe against his former party, Husam said that Amanah must “bring change in the nation and not just be a crutch for a corrupt power-that-be” like some parties.

After breaking away from the now defunct Pakatan Rakyat opposition bloc, political pundits have commented that PAS seems to be getting close to Umno.

The Islamist party has been accused of being used as a spoiler to break up anti-government Malay votes in multi-cornered elections that can only benefit the Malay party.

“I hereby jump onto Amanah’s ship as PAS’ is now sailing without direction. I don’t know how others can still stay in a ship which is sailing to nowhere,” said Husam during the dinner.

The event was broadcast live by Internet radio station Pedas FM, and was attended by top Amanah leaders including president Mohamad Sabu and his deputy Salahuddin Ayub.

Husam said that while party leaders advocated the view that the Islamist party was the only one true Islamic congregation, his faith was not affected by leaving PAS, nor did it affect his struggle for Islam.

Husam said that as PAS’ light has waned, it was now time to continue the struggle for Islam in a new vessel and that was why he chose Amanah after his dismissal from the Islamist party.

When the progressive faction of PAS exited the party en masse to form Amanah last year, Husam was expected to join them; however, he remained in PAS and continued to call for reforms within the party.

He was axed by PAS in May this year, once again sparking expectations that he will join Amanah, something which took until tonight to occur.

Idris Jala berpada-padalah buat pengumuman ‘pendapatan tinggi’…kesian cerita khayalan buat rakyat teramai.

August 27, 2016

Idris Jala, berpada-padalah buat pengumuman ‘pendapatan tinggi’….kesian rakyat teramai.

1. Kenyataan Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif, Unit Pengurusan Prestasi dan Perlaksanaan (Pemandu), DS Idris Jala negara terlepas dari ‘Perangkap Pendaparan Sederhana’ dan kea rah menjadi sebuah Negara Maju, tidak mendapat sorakan gemuruh. Sebabnya akan saya butirkan.
2. Beliau dakwa pendapatan negara kasar (PNK) per kapita berkembang daripada US$7,950 kpd US$10,760 (US$1 = RM3.99) antara 2009 – 2015, mendekati pendapatan tinggi US$15,000 pada 2020 seperti ditetapkan oleh Bank Dunia.
3. Hutang negara didakwa diurus baik dan defisit fiskal dijangka menguncup dari 3.2% KDNK akhir tahun 2015 ke 3.1% pada akhir tahun 2016.
4. Ada apa pada angka-angka itu Pemandu dan Putrajaya? Perihal hutang acap saya komentar. Kali ini saya fokas perihal gaji dan kerana apa ia akan menggagalkan pacuan ke arah ‘pendapatan tinggi’, secara ringkas. Faktor lain seperti gangguan atau pengherotan pasaran akibat monopoli pihak GLCs ke atas pasaran, sekaligus sentimen pelaburan swasta tidak dibincangkan disini. Begitu juga hal 1MDB dan hutangnya RM50b bersamaan 5% KDNK…..
5. Penghujjahan..
i.Bisnes tidak serancak dulu dan kini pertumbuhan pinjaman, ukuran kerancakan bisnes, adalah paling rendah dalam 9 tahun yang mutakhir ini…
ii. Keuntungan korporat (corporate earnings) nyata merosot dan
iii. kadar pembuangan pekerja (retrenchment) terus meningkat mengikut data resmi Jabatan Tenaga Kerja dalam tahun 2015 dan akan menjadi lebih parah (anaemic) dalam 2016.
iv..Pertumbuhan di sektor ‘retail’ (peruncitan) menjadi negatif 4.4% dalam suku kedua tahun ini berbanding pertumbuhan 4% dalam suku kedua tahun lalu. Tanda perbelanjaan domestik menjunam.
v.Tujuan Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) menurunkan kadar faedah (OPR), antara lainnya, bagi merancakkan perbelanjaan (spending) dalam suasana ekonomi tempatan serta global suram dan melembap.
vi. Ada pakar-pakar ekonomi meramalkan ‘recession’ pada tahun 2018 atau lebih awal. Lebih mencemaskan.
vii. Majikan tidak lagi dapat menaikkan gaji pekerja kerana bisnes perlahan. Sebaliknya pula, kalau pekerja tidak berbelanja kerana tidak punya wan
g utk berbelanja (disposable income), akhirnya majikan akan menerima padahnya, kerana ‘permintaan’ untuk barangan dan perkhidmatan (goods and services).
viii. Mengikut Jabatan Statistik bulan Jun tahun ini, pertumbuhan kenaikan gaji ialah 6.7% untuk tahun lalu…kawasan bandar adalah lebih rendah yakni 3% tetapi diluar bandar sebanyak 9%.
ix. Dengan mengambil kira faktor inflasi, maka kenaikan gaji sebenar (real wages) di kawasan bandar adalah lebih rendah dari 1%.
x. Kuala Lumpur, Pulau Pinang, mereka tidak kecapi peningkatan pendapatan langsung, setelah ditolak faktor inflasi! Gaji penengah (median wage) rakyat Kuala Lumpur masih dilaporkan hanya berjumlah RM2,200 sebulan (RM26,400) atau bersamaan PNK per kapita US$6,616 (berbanding yang diwarwarkan Idris Jala sebagai US$10,760 (purata). Bayangkan perbezaan dengan data Idris Jala untuk warga KL! Adooh…!
xi. Pemandu juga patut setiap 1RM keuntungan yang dijana di M’sia; pekerja (buruh atau labour) hanya dapat 35 sen, sementara majikan (pemilik kapital) 60sen dan kerajaan 5sen. Begitu nisbah pembahagian keuntungan.
xii. Berbanding jiran Singapura, pekerja mendapat 42 sen, majikan 47 sen dan kerajaan 11 sen! Negara-negara maju yang lain pun begitu atau lebih baik. Apa sebabnya?
xiii Perubahan struktural dalam ekonomi diperlukan. Tinggalkan pergantungan kepada industri dan kilang yang nilai-tambahnya rendah, yang memerlukan tenaga kerja yang berketrampilan rendah. Keuntungan juga rendah. Lazimnya regim pendapatan atau skima gaji mereka juga rendah.
xiii. Kebergantungan kepada ekonomi yang berteraskan mengekspot komoditi asas (kelapa sawit, CPO, getah dan minyak mentah) juga adalah punca masalah. Kesemua ini akan membuat pergantungan kepada pekerja asing, serentak tidak akan menggalakan kenaikan gaji di pasaran buruh.

Rakyat selalunya menyalahkan bebanan kos saraan hidup yang tinggi akibat penarikan subsidi dan penguatkuasaan cukai regresif seperti GST. Ini memang benar. Namun faktor gaji (wages) yang rendah juga adalah sebab penting.

Kerajaan perlu membuat reformasi struktural ekonomi ini, kerana andainya skima gaji pekerja dapat dipertingkat (tak cukup dengan ‘gaji minima’ shj), sekaligus cukai yang progresif seperti cukai pendapatan (income tax), akan dapat dijana bagi meningkatkan pendapatan (revenue) kerajaan.

Seluruh reformasi struktural ini mesti dimulakan. Sebaliknya pula kerajaan perkenalkan cukai regresif seperti GST serta terus mengherot pasaran dengan persaingan GLCs yang dibantu dengan monopoli seperti pemberian APs kepada kroni.

Harap Idris Jala berpada-pada membuat pengumuman di masa akan datang….kesian rakyat sebab semua cerita perihal negara maju dan berpendapatan tinggi telah menjadi cerita khayalan buat rakyat teramai.

Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad, Pengarah Strategi,
Parti Amanah Negara
25 Ogos 2016.

Bila lagi Peguam Negara mahu bertindak..?!

August 23, 2016

Bila lagi Peguam Negara mahu bertindak ?

  1. Sangat malang, ketika Peguam Negara dari jabatan Kehakiman, Amerika Syarikat (DoJ), Peguam Negara Switzerland bersekali dengan Money Authority of Singapore (MAS) yang merupakan Bank Pusat negara itu, telah semua bertindak ke atas pesalah-pesalah dan perbankan yang terlibat dalam ‘konspirasi antarabangsa’ dalam pengsonglapan dana 1-MDB, termasuk memulakan ‘forfeiture of assets’ seumpama dilakukan DoJ, Peguam Negara Malaysia mendakwa segala-gala masih lagi dalam tahap siasatan.
  2. Peguam Negara Malaysia adalah merupakan seorang penasihat undang-undang utama kerajaan Malaysia sekaligus juga merupakan Peguam dan Pendakwa Raya bagi Kerajaan. Bidang kuasa dan tugas Peguam Negara diperuntukkan dalam Perkara 145 Perlembagaan Persekutuan. Beliau seorang seorang shj yang berkuasa mendakwa!
  3. Kalau benar-benar kita tidak mempunyai kemampuan untuk menyiasat secara forensik dan cekap, bukanlah lebih baik kita membantu segala siasatan yang sedang dilakukan oleh jurisdiksi negara-negara asing tersebut. Lagi pun yang didakwa dirompak adalah syarikat milik Malaysia dan milik rakyat Malaysia seluruhnya.
  4. Sesungguhnya kita tidak perlu tunggu dan lihat apa kesudahan kes saman sivil yang difailkan oleh DoJ di United State District Court, di Los Angeles, California sebelum kita bertindak dalam jurisdiksi atau kerangka perundangan negara kita yang berdaulat yang mendukungi Kedaulatan Undang-Undang atau Rule of Law.
  5. Sudah cukup bukti prima facie untuk Shahrol Azral Helmi, Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif (CEO) 1-MDB (dulunya Terengganu Investment Authority-TIA) untuk didakwa atas pelbagai kesalahan. Kalau kita membaca dengan teliti Laporan PAC tersebut (dari muka surat 98 – 101), Shahrol telah melanggari serta membelakangi Lembaga Pengarah (BOD) sebanyak 19X, menipu (deceived) BOD 6X dan menipu 3X pihak Auditor.
  6. Laporan PAC juga telah secara khusus (di muka surat 106) menyebutkan…PAC berpendapat bahawa mantan Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif (CEO), Datuk Shahrol Azral Ibrahim Halmi perlu mengambil tanggungjawab untuk kelemahan dan kekakngan-kekangan tersebut. Oleh itu, pihak agensi penguatkuasa diminta untuk membuat siasatan.
  7. Pelanggaran pertama dalam terbitan ‘Islamic Medium Term Notes (IMTN), bermula Mac 2009 lagi, yang justeru kerana tidak diambil tindakan secara tegaslah, pada pandangan saya, adalah penyebab seluruh kegiatan pengsonglapan yang sememang jelasnya seperti didakwa DoJ sebagai satu rancangan ‘international conspiracy’ untuk ‘merompak’ 1MDB oleh pegawai-pegawai tinggi 1-MDB dan seluruh kuncu-kuncu antarabangsanya dapat dilangsungkan bermaharajalela selama hampir 5 tahun (2009-2014).
  8. Bermula di situlah..seperti yang dokumen DoJ (136 ms) sifatkan sebagai “Jalur Good Star”, kemudian diikuti dengan “Jalur Aabar-BVI” dan akhirnya “Jalur Tanore”. Rompakan sempurna dengan tahap terkahir ‘Jalur SRC International’ (tidak dilaporkan DoJ. Terdapat dalam WSJ -sumber oleh Msian Investigators). Sebahagian dana yang dirompak inilah (dari keempat2 jalur) yang dipindahkan ke Amerika Syarikat (kurang lebih US$3.5b atau RM14.1b) dengan pelbagai cara atau kaedah “layering’ (perpindahan berlapis-lapis) dan kemudian digunakan membeli pelbagai aset hartanah mewah, jet peribadi, yatch mewah, berjudi dsbnya. Tindakan DoJ adalah ke atas ‘wang haram’ ini yang dibawa masuk ke perbankan di USA untuk “dicuci atau didobi” (laundry) dengan pembelian aset-aset mewah ini…..
  9. Untuk ingatan umum dan rakyat seluruh, terbitan IMTN pertama itu sebanyak RM5,000,000,000 menggunakan prinsip Murabahah dengan kadar keuntungan (profit rate) pada 5.75% akan matang pada 2039.
  10. Pada 2039 nanti jumlah kupon seluruhnya (finally) yang telah dibayar adalah RM6,612,500,000 dan dengan bayaran balik pokok principle (nilai asal atau face value – at par) sebanyak RM5,000,000,000 maka jumlah besarnya (total obligation) 1-MDB (kini dibayar Kerajaan) ialah sebanyak RM11,612,500,000!
  11. Manakan hendak dicari sumber dana untuk membayar semua ini, sebab 1-MDB tidak punya apa-apa pendapatan ‘cashflow’ atau ‘income stream’ (pendapatan) dari pinjaman RM5b IMTN ini?!…akhirnya tentu akan diBailout oleh Kerajaan dan dibayar Rakyat! Terkini, jumlah hutang 1-MDB telah mencecah 5% (RM50b) dari GDP (KDNK-RM1000b)…Bunga atau interest sahaja sudah cukup membebankan…kalau dikenakan contoh 5% bunga atau interest adalah sebanyak RM2.5b setahun atau RM208juta sebulan…dan ini bayaran Bunga atau Interest sahaja! Celakalah kesemua penyangak yang terlibat menjahanamkan kewangan dan sumber kekayaan negara ini! Anda adalah sangat khianat kepada Rakyat dan Negara !!! Bayangkan berapa banyak bantuan dan projek yang kita boleh bangunkan untuk rakyat…sekolah, hospital, perumahan dan universiti!
  12. Bila lagi hendak kita saksikan Peguam Negara bertindak? Kalau Peguam Negara takut untuk bertindak ke atas Pengerusi Lembaga Penasihat 1-MDB, kerana beliaulah pada hakikatnya yang bertanggungjawab ke atas 1-MDB ciptaannya itu juga, paling tidaknya mulakan dengan mantan CEO 1-MDB itu…! Jangan tangguh-tangguh lagi….! Amarah rakyat sudah tidak dapat dikawal lagi..Justice Delayed Is Just Denied!

 

 

Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad, Pengarah Strategi

Parti Amanah Negara, 23 Ogos 2016.

 

 

 

Ringgit sinks as crude’s tumble bodes ill for Malaysia finances

August 3, 2016

Ringgit sinks as crude’s tumble bodes ill for Malaysia finances

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KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 2): The ringgit led a decline in Asian currencies as slumping oil prices dim the prospects for Malaysia’s export earnings.

Brent crude sank 0.8% to close at its lowest level in four months on Monday, and US oil slid into a bear market amid renewed concern there is a global supply glut. While prices rebounded on Tuesday, Brent is still down about 19% from this year’s high in June. Malaysia loses RM450 million (US$112 million) in annual income for every US$1 drop in oil and the nation derives about a fifth of its revenue from energy-related sources.

“The wider story is the oil price slippage for the past few weeks,” said Vishnu Varathan, a senior economist at Mizuho Bank Ltd in Singapore. “In Malaysia’s case, oil has the most pronounced effect, so that’s keeping the ringgit in check.”

The ringgit weakened as much as 1% before ending 0.3% lower at 4.0345 per dollar in Kuala Lumpur, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg. It has lost 0.9% in the past one month, the worst performance in Asia.

Ten-year government bonds fell, pushing the yield up three basis points to 3.62%, according to prices from Bursa Malaysia. The five-year yield also climbed three basis points to 3.24%.

Oil Is Facing The Perfect StormOil Is Facing The Perfect Storm

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